fredag 13. oktober 2017

Goldman Sachs – Snakeoil News

by Robert Wood - Sociologist
If you are looking for gold price indicators, look no future. The Shamans of Snake Oil News, investment bank Goldman Sachs, is a reliable counter-indicator.

What is a counter indicator? Harken! If analysts at Goldman Sachs claim that the price of gold will fall, that’s an indicator of the opposite. Be sure that the price will rice or stay put.

Far off the Planet
November 2013 Goldman Sachs predicted that gold ($1280/oz.) would continue to fall another 15 % in 2014. The analysts, currently employed at the investment, firm were also quite sure that gold would get very close to the $ 1000 an ounce mark. Furthermore, all this on top of the 28% price reduction that already had taken place in 2013. But alas, so much for a million dollar analysis. The price of gold at the end of the year turned out to be $1207 an ounce. Goldman Sachs reasoned that if The Federal Reserve stopped printing 85 billion dollars a month as Quantitative Easing, a fall in prices would follow.
   The Fed stopped printing money, but the price of gold did not fall. Unforeseen crises and trends in the American society made a mockery out of the Goldman Sachs prediction. People started to spend more money, more jobs brought more people into the workforce and the American dollar got stronger.

Kitco News
History seems to repeat itself in Neils Chirstensen’s article in Kitco News, 9th of October 2017. He notes that Goldman Sacs sees a potential for prices to fall 14% from current levels. Furthermore, Chirstensen quote Goldman Sachs technical analysts: Sheba Jafari and Jack Abramovitz said that they see gold prices falling to $1,100 an ounce after the market was unable to test key resistance around $1,380 an ounce.
   Then the Snake Oil News is poured from a beautifully designed finance lingo bottle. “If true, it’s on track to forming another three wave decline which at very least comes close to testing the previous lows from Dec. ’16 at 1,123," the analysts said. "It could extend as far as 1,105; but shouldn’t run much further than there (given the corrective nature of the setup)."
   Beautiful, isn’t it?: … another three wave decline … 1,105? Bullshit… Not even the computer Deep Blue could have forcasted the price of gold that precise over such a long timespan.
   Anyhow, like ambient music, Jafari and Abramovitz love expressions that are liquid enough to adapt themselves to the fluid movements of gold and the whims of arbitrary social happenings.
   But no matter how lyrical the two analysts express themselves, backed by a September report, the investment bank maintain its outlook, that gold prices will end the year at $1.250 an ounce.

Roll the Dice of Faith
Gold is an extremely price-sensitive commodity and anybody who tries to roll the dice of fate are challenge the forever changing realities and those who try to influencing random behavior are in for a rough ride. Goldman Sach failed miserably in their November 2013 predictions and personally I do not for a moment believe that gold will kiss $1.250 at the end of 2017. 
Prove me wrong, Sheba Jafari and Jack Abramovitz. ;-)

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