mandag 3. november 2014

The Iran, Turkey and U.S. Scenario

An international cloak and dagger thriller deserves good guys and bad guys. But who is the bad guy and who is the hero depends on the storyteller.

In days of old it was easy to see who the bad guy was because we learned from westerns that the hero wore a white hat and the bad guy wore a black hat. Then Dr. No entered, with the British macho assassin, James Bond. Now it was a little more complicated who was the villain, but since Mr. Bond killed on behalf of the British government we sided with him. As time went by we understood that evil is inherent in the mentally unstable, such as Dr. Evil, and that The British Power Elite often employs psychotic, sex-mad agents such as Austin Powers.

Zeitgeist
But the Zeitgeist changed and so did our views of right and wrong. The bad guys were the same, but our conception of heroes did change. In Star Wars, we are never in doubt who is the evil one. He has an ink black helmet, whiskey voice and insists on conquering the galaxy. On the other hand we have the hero. He is uncertain of himself, hyperactive and surrounds himself with cynical humans, dumb aliens and quasi-intelligent? robots. There’s a frigid princess to seduce. A couple of philosophizing oldies, with a fetish for swords, are doing their best to teach the not so macho hero to survive five minutes into the saga.

Ayatollah Ali, Turkey Altin and Uncle Sam
In the real world, the borders between good and evil are even more erased. And when gold is on the gambling table, the difference is even more unclear. Uncle Sam, who represents the The Western Good Empire, is The Good Guy. He insists that Ayatollah Ali, from The Middle East Evil Empire, should not manufacture his own atomic bombs. Such weapons are dangerous, and it is only Uncle Sam that understands which countries deserve to become a heap of radioactive rubble.
   On the other side of the gambling table Ayatollah Ali insists that his oil rich country is developing environment friendly nuclear power as an alternative to polluting oil-burning power stations. Uncle Sam does not believe this. Why burn uranium when the country can burn cheap oil? No, Ayatollah Ali must harbor evil plans to build bombs he can drop on nations he dislike.
   Uncle Sam, with his love for Nobel’s Peace Prize, can’t allow that and the second best solution is making it difficult for Iran to get hold of the almighty dollar. No $ = no bombs is the conclusion. Uncle Sam could have made the words of Dr. Evil his own: Well, it's true! It's true! You're semi-evil. You're quasi-evil. You're the margarine of evil. You're the Diet Coke of evil.
   The Message is clear as a glass Diet Coke. Uncle Sam does not really worry about the atomic bomb capacity of a primitive theocracy. His worries are about the possibility of the bombs to be dropped. Then all hell will break loose in the desert region. Oil production will stop; prices will skyrocket and who knows where the scarybunnies at Wall Street will jump.

There is no justice
Ayatollah Ali does not think it is fair to be shut out of The Swift International Banking System and not get paid in dollars for oil. But then he gets this brilliant idea. Why not start trading without money? He needs someone willing to trade gas for gold. And he finds a worthy partner, Turkey Altin.
   What happens? Turkey Altin shall pay for the oil and gas from Iran with Turkish liras. But since Ayatholla Ali can’t spend Turkish money in his own country, he bought gold in Turkey. An enormous amount of gold. Export statistic shows that in April 2013 Turkey exported gold to Iran for 1.2 billion dollar. And then we are once more back to cloak and dagger – gold scenarios a la James Bond vs. Goldfinger and Austin Powers vs. Goldmember. How did they do it? It turned out that well-dressed men in agent-black suits traveled by plane to Iran and Dubai with designer made suitcases that had room for 50 kilo gold. This is the weight limit of how much gold you can export from Turkey at a time.

Gold flows like water
Why all this hidden activity? Why couldn’t Turkey Altin just pay for the gas and oil with American dollars? The U.S. sanctions are unilateral. Turkey would not have broken any international laws by paying with dollar. The answer is obious. Turkey Altin did not dare to expose himself to Uncle Sam’s wrath. And he feared with good reason. Because, when Uncle Sam’s secret agents found out about the trade between Iran and Turkey, he got furious. And in those days a decree went out from the peace loving president… That the any land would be punished by his Federal Reserve Bank if they dared help Ayatholla Ali to get hold of dollars, precious metals or… gold. These words all nations would heed and the trade with gold for oil would come to an end. But Turkey Altin was not at a loss. August, 2013 Turkey exported gold for 1.9 billion dollars (13 billion  Norwegian kroner) to The United Arabian Emirates. And since Iran got closely knitted religious, cultural and economic ties to this country we may presume that much of the gold was exchanged for dollars on behalf of Iran. Gold flows like water through trade embargoes

The Powerplay never stops
Even if relationships between Ayatholla Ali and Uncle Sam have improved in 2014, the game of power and money goes on. Gold and precious metals are still important in politics. Men in black with gold bullion in their attaché cases are important. Gold is an international commodity. No matter what Uncle Sam and other governments are threating with gold will find its own way to those who have resources, goods and money to pay for it.

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